In this project, an analytical framework is proposed to quantify and systematically incorporate…
The probability of occurrence of natural phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes
On communities including people and infrastructure
Associated with different mathematical models
Associated with empirical observations of the phenomena under study
It is shown that a common theoretical-analytical framework can be defined for the different natural phenomena and different scientific disciplines.
Figure 1: Recurrence model (left), impact (center), and risk curve (right) including epistemic uncertainties.
The work also investigates the origin of the existing uncertainties in mathematical models and shows the importance they have in a decision-making context with incomplete information.
Figure 2: Impact of epistemic uncertainties in design problems decision-making.