Epistemic uncertainty in risk analysis

In this project, an analytical framework is proposed to quantify and systematically incorporateā€¦

PROBABILISTIC HAZARD

The probability of occurrence of natural phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes

PROBABILISTIC IMPACT

On communities including people and infrastructure

MODEL UNCERTAINTY

Associated with different mathematical models

DATA UNCERTAINTY

Associated with empirical observations of the phenomena under study

It is shown that a common theoretical-analytical framework can be defined for the different natural phenomena and different scientific disciplines.

Figure 1: Recurrence model (left), impact (center), and risk curve (right) including epistemic uncertainties.



The work also investigates the origin of the existing uncertainties in mathematical models and shows the importance they have in a decision-making context with incomplete information.

Figure 2: Impact of epistemic uncertainties in design problems decision-making.

Team

Mariano Balbi

David Lallemant