Sensitivity Analysis for Flood Impact Modelling

Little has been done to understand the uncertainty in exposure modelling and its impacts on risk analyses. In this project, exposure data would be collected using various methods, ranging from globally available population data, to high resolution satellite imagery, drone imagery, to street-level 360° camera footage.

The purpose of this project is two-fold. First, by comparing various types of exposure data with high-quality ground truth data, this project aims to shed light on the sensitivity of risk to exposure models for different natural disasters. By identifying the critical factors in exposure models that contribute to uncertainty in risk, and the impacts of different exposure data on the results of risk analyses, suggestions on the treatment of risk values derived using different types of exposure data can be made. Second, this project also aims to inform the issue of trade-off between accuracy and effort.

This project is currently funded by the National Research Foundation (Singapore).

Preliminary Studies

Sensitivity Analysis of Exposure for Flood Risk Assessment in Data Scarce Areas: Monywa, Myanmar

A small scale test study on selected townships in the Chindwin River Basin, Myanmar has been conducted to understand the range of uncertainty present in extant population exposure data. The result of this study has been presented at the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society Conference (2019).