Global Tipping Points and COP30
Challenge compound as we move further into the 21st century. What do we do about ecosystems that are already strongly degraded? A new report sets out clear steps for action.
In the first days of COP30, hosted in Belém, Brazil, global leaders focus discussions on the urgency of transforming sectors to mitigate the accelerating impacts of climate change. The need for climate action is overwhelming – but what are the pathways towards effective mitigation and preservation of our most precious natural environments?
Enter the Global Tipping Points 2025 report, published in mid-October, which covers both the severe risks of climate breakdown and – crucially – the actions we can collectively take to mitigate climate change and avoid irreversible, catastrophic outcomes. This report is the collective effort of 160 researchers from 23 countries and 87 institutions – including our own Alina Bill-Weilandt. Below is the section (pgs. 255 – 266) that she contributed to:
Coral reefs are passing a tipping point
Coral reef ecosystems thrive in a relatively small range of temperatures. The report confirms they are already passing a tipping point. Reefs have been in decline for decades, with coral reef degradation in the Caribbean particularly stark: a 43% decrease from 1970 to 2023. Average temperature increase of 1.2°C is a first threshold at which reefs degrade and cannot be restored; while 1.5°C is the upper threshold. This latter number is prominent: it is the temperature agreed in the Paris Accords of 2015 as the limit beyond which the most catastrophic effects of climate change would take place – and it was first breached last year. Degradation of coral reefs means the loss of a million species and the livelihoods of up to 1 billion people.
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 found that if Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, temperatures will increase by 2.3-2.5°C over this century. Under the current mitigation policies, the temperature increase is expected to reach 2.8°C.
Actions to mitigate irreversible damage to reefs
The coral reefs chapter (and the report) is not easy reading, and the goals are ambitious. The coral reef team call for urgent multiple actions to restore average global temperatures to 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, and longer-term goals of returning to 1°C. The key actions to achieve these lofty goals are:
- Control overfishing and establish protected marine areas
- Regulate coastal development and reduce sediment runoff
- Regulate agricultural pollution and watershed inputs
- Respond to coral disease and heat stress
- Support regional monitoring and science-policy integration
- Scale up reef restoration through coral nurseries and out planting
- Implement blue bonds and debt-for-nature swaps
- Use reef insurance and risk-based financial instruments
- Encourage active participation in Regional Policy and International Advocacy
Here in South-East Asia, coral reefs form an essential part of our many landscapes, as environments of irreplaceable beauty and resource essential for the well-being and livelihoods of millions of people. We cannot get on without them. We are proud of Alina for her contributions to a critically valuable effort that seeks to address some of the most urgent issues facing our people and planet.
What you can do
Read the report in full here: https://global-tipping-points.org (*)
Sign the Dartington declaration here: https://global-tipping-points.org/the-dartington-declaration/
*(Alina’s contributions to chapter on coral reefs pg. 255 – 266)
Header image source: Image 4.3.1 from Global Tipping Points report (2025, pg. 259): reef to rubble trajectory in the Caribbean. @Kieth Ellenbogen/iLCP (left) Healthy Reefs for Healthy People (right)